Economics

  • It's China's turn to shape governance reform.

    Another Shot at Global Governance Reform

    At the end of the twentieth century, China was an observer of global governance, on the sidelines of the G7 and not yet a member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Encouraged by Western countries to embrace global governance, China has become much more proactive in pushing global cooperation since the G20 was founded. As president of the G20 for 2016, China has an unprecedented opportunity to provide impetus to global development.

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  • It's China's turn at the G20 helm to show the world it can lead.

    China in the G20 Spotlight

    The G20 has become the key vehicle for implementing and promoting global economic governance. China is set to host this year’s G20 summit in Hangzhou on 4–5 September.

    What can we expect from the G20 under China’s leadership?

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  • Despite caution, market odds of a September rate hike move higher.

    Odds of a September Rate Hike Move Higher

    The US dollar is trading firmly, largely within yesterday's ranges.  The odds implied by the September Fed fund futures eased to 36% from 42% before the weekend, but ahead of Fischer's Bloomberg TV appearance, and tomorrow's ADP employment estimate, the market seems cautious about fading the dollar's strength. 

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  • China believes a greater G20 role for Africa will speed up industrialization.

    Can Africa Benefit from a Greater G20 Role?

    As China assumes leadership in the grouping, Beijing a wants greater role for Africa and the developing world in the G20.

    When China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke in the Hangzhou Summit in May, he made it clear that Beijing intends to cooperate with other G20 countries to deliver ten outcomes. One of these focuses on Africa.

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  • The G20 needs to adjust to a new world.

    How will the G20 Work in a Multi-polar World?

    More than seven decades after 1945, international multilateral organizations continue to represent the victors of World War II, not the economic powerhouses of the 21st century. However, change is in the air.

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  • Wages for the lowest paid appear to be outpacing inflation.

    Wages, albeit the Lowest, Appear to be on the Rise

    This Great Graphic comes from the Wall Street Journal.  It shows what is happening to the pay of the least compensated in the US.  Their pay is going up at a pace that is exceeding the averages and inflation.

    The data is from Q2 16.  Weekly wages for full-time employees in the 25th percentile, earning about $13 an hour, are up about 3.1% from a year ago.  The Labor Department data show that this is the largest increase since 2009.  The pace of increase exceeds the pay of median workers who make about $20 an hour for full-time work.

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  • The Fed, BOJ and ECB go there own way.

    The Divergent Monetary Policy Theme is Back

    The US dollar staged a strong pre-weekend rally on hints that the Fed will raise rates before the end of the year.  There was initially follow through dollar buying in Asia before a more stable tone emerged in Europe, where London markets are closed for a bank holiday.  The easing of the dollar’s upside momentum may set the stage for a bout of profit-taking later today and tomorrow.  

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  • Yellen's comments were important, but there is so much more to consider.

    Yellen is Part of a Larger Equation

    With 17 simple words and the help of clarification from her deputy, Yellen changed the near-term dynamics in the capital markets.  By saying that "...I believe that case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months," Yellen placed her marker down.

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  • September may see a pick up in market activity.

    Summer goes On, but not the Market Doldrums

    The US dollar had spent the last full week of August mostly confined to narrow trading ranges against the major currencies until the Yellen spoke as at the end of the week.  She confirmed the constructive assessment of the economy already offered by both Fischer and Dudley in recent days. While acknowledging that the case of a rate hike was strengthening, she shed no light on the timeframe.

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