Europe/Middle East

  • A German court ruling could undermine the UK referendum.

    German Ruling could Pit National Court against ECJ

    The assassination of the Jo Cox has broken the powerful momentum in the markets.  Investors recognize that the tragedy potentially injects a new element into consideration for the outcome of next week's referendum.  The campaigns will be resume over the weekend, and new polls will be available.  Investors will place more weight on polls conducted after the assassination. 

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  • The attack on an MP represents a dangerous unknown.

    The Senseless Attack on MP Jo Cox is Far-Reaching

    The assassination of Jo Cox, a member of the UK parliament is a personal and political tragedy.  Her needless death provided an inflection point.  The suspension of the referendum campaigns and a steady stream of reports and speeches have the emotionalism of contest freeze.

    Investors quickly understood that the Cox's death injected a new unknown into the forces that seemed to build toward a decision to leave the EU.

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  • Economists for Brexit are probably proud of their work, though it is flawed.

    Pro-Brexit Economists' Plan is...Flawed

    There are numerous studies showing the economic costs of Brexit and the weight of academic opinion backs these estimates. However, the Vote Leave campaign does have a small group of economists who claim that the UK can be better off if it leaves the EU.

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  • The French government and citizens are at odds over labor reforms.

    Friction Over French Labor Reforms Builds

    The French government wants structural reforms, but unions and most people do not. As political friction is escalating, Paris is preparing for the Euro 2016 football tournament, which is attracting terror efforts by radical right, ultra-left and the jihadists. At the same time, the country has been pummeled by ‘once-in-a-century’ flooding.

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  • Pew research produced interesting EU support results across members.

    EU Support Varies Dramatically by Age, Immigration Policy

    One of the most profound criticisms of the EU that it remains, even at this late date, primarily an elite project.  The democratic deficit has grown, according to the latest Pew Research multi-country poll.

    The Pew Research survey covered ten countries that represent 80% of the EU28 population and 82% of the region's GDP.  The poll surveyed nearly 10.5k people between April 4 and May 12.

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  • Reasons to do an about face on a Brexit.

    Why Someone Jumped off of the Brexit Bus

    In 1997, a small number of academic economists in my country, the Netherlands, came out against the euro and were vilified by the authorities. I was one of them.  When my native country organised a (non-binding) referendum about adopting the so-called European “constitution”, in 2005, many again protested.

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  • The odds of a 'Brexit' rose to a level not seen since March.

    Brexit Odds are Fluid, but Rising

    This Great Graphic shows the price people are willing to pay to bet that the UK votes to leave the EU at the June 23 referendum on the PredictIt events markets.  We included the lower chart to give some sense of volume of activity on this wager in this event market.

    Presently, one would have to wager 42 cents to win a dollar if the UK votes to leave.  On May 23, one could wager 19 cents.  On Saturday, June 4, would have "bet" on Brexit for 30 cents.

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  • UK Expats will be left out of the referendum vote.

    No Brexit Vote for You

    decision by judges in the Supreme Court has finally put an end to the legal challenge of two British citizens claiming to be unfairly excluded from voting in the EU referendum. They were campaigning against the law , which disenfranchises people who have lived outside the UK for 15 years or more.

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